Skip to main content

Science says I can go 26 hours for a 100-miler

http://ncrc.appstate.edu
I teach at Appalachian State University and there's an academic/sport rock star on our campus.

Dr. David Nieman is a top researcher and is often quoted in major publications like the New York Times (check out http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/20/can-athletes-perform-well-on-a-vegan-diet/)

Nieman was also highly involved with research related to the Western States 100 mile endurance run. I contacted Dr. Nieman regarding weight vs. performance and he was kind enough to send me a summary of his Western States work.  Check out the following, inclusive of a wild formula to predict one's finishing time for 100 mile racing!


In general, the data indicate that these runners (age range, 19 to 69 years) were deeply committed to training for and competing in ultra-marathons. A stepwise, multiple regression model showed that the 160-km WSER race time (h) could be predicted by this equation: 12.57 + (0.126 x age) + (2.56 x gender) + (0.285 x BMI) – (0.01931 x km/week) (R2 = 0.23) (male gender=1, female=2). Thus race time for a 20 yr old male with a 22.0 BMI, and a training distance of 130 km/wk would be estimated at 21.4 h compared to 28.5 h for a 55 year-old male with a 27 BMI and 65 km/wk training distance.


Here's how my formula looks:

12.57+(.126*55)+(2.56*1)+(.285*21.5)-(.01931*112.65) = 26.0122285

Wow.  I had a 24:32 about 15 years ago. So based on my BMI, age and weekly miles, science says I can crack out a 26 hour run. Thanks Dr. Nieman.  That's the bump I needed coming off today's body slam 10-miler in the heat.

Why don't some of you run your own numbers and post a comment? I'd like to hear about how you'll be doing at your next 100 mile attempt.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Nothing to see here, folks

It's been a long time since I've been active on my blog. To be honest, I got tired of putting in the work, creating content, with so little feedback or response. Time to divert to other things...such as my new fiction book, coming out soon. Part horror story, part steamy romance. You'll definitely want a copy.

There's another reason I haven't been posting. My endurance spirit is broken.

Some medical issues, some sadness is loss of speed. I don't have much range left in my pulse rate and I have put on a blob of weight.

I "ran" my 10 mile loop this morning...in 2:18. Is that ugly, or what? An overall fatigue follows the run. I remember a few years ago, I'd bang it out in straight 9's for a 1:30 - and at that time had a long section of medium effort trail included, too.

It's the new normal. It's age appropriate. I'll be 59 in two weeks. Let's get real.

Rode my mountain bike Sunday after church. Don't know what I hit but I went…

Break(down)

You have to look closely (click and enlarge photo if needed), but when you do, check out the 5th metacarpal (bone furthest from thumb).

The diagonal break is symbolic of what happens when your mountain bike handlebars snap around 360 degrees, and those bars catch your hand against the bike frame during the rotation.

Well there you have it. I got up after my ride over the bars and knew something was wrong, but didn't want to admit it. Rode about three miles back to the car, then went a week with some ice and heat. Thought it was good, until I smacked the same bone on the bars during a road ride the following weekend.

Time to stop the charades and get to urgent care.

For the past three weeks, I have been in a formed splint that kept the pinkie and ring fingers immobilized in a hooked formation. Don't want those tendons to move across the bone. As the doc stated, it's a "forgiving" break, but nonetheless you don't want to give the bone any excuse to shift; that…

Fitness setback? Use the healing power of plants

Maybe you're like me. You had achieved a fitness and nutrition peak, but then slid off the mountain. Hey, most of us aren't professional athletes and we aren't paid to be ripped and shredded, right? Life got in the way. I produced my dossier for tenure, then finished several academic publications. And, there is always teaching and a responsilbity to the student experience. I'm not proud of the outcome, but that's how it works for me. When I wrote "Mind Over Diet" the key premise was self-negotiation. You must create your own scenarios that drive action. It's time to start over. My advice is to build your comeback with food, not exercise. Everyone wants to run to the gym and crank the big workouts...how long does that usually last? I'd suggest the food is the ultimate change agent. Eat as close to "alive" as possible; take the processing and chemicals out. Fresh food will bring life back into your body. That's the foundation. Here…